DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/09 10:51

   Corn, Soybean Futures Lower at Midday Thursday; Wheat Higher

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 
5 to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 8 to 11 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 
5 to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 8 to 11 cents higher. The U.S. stock 
market is firmer at midday with the S&P 45 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index 
is flat. The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade is weaker with 
crude off 1.25 and natural gas .18 lower. Livestock trade is mostly higher. 
Precious metals are firmer with gold up 55.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade fading back toward 
nearby support levels early in the session before rebounding back toward flat. 
On the WASDE report, trade is looking for yield to be unchanged at 183 bushels 
per acre (bpa) with old-crop carryout at 2.077 billion bushels (bb) and 1.855 
bb of new-crop versus 2.145 bb and 1.960 bb last month, respectively. Ethanol 
margins are narrowing a little Thursday but remain solid with recent unleaded 
action. Weekly export sales were lackluster at 565,800 mt old-crop and 401,700 
mt of new. Weather is expected to remain warmer than normal in the short term 
with rains moving through much of the Western Corn Belt overnight. On the 
September chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.24 1/2 as support with the 
upper Bollinger Band at $4.40 as resistance, which we faded from yesterday.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 5 to 6 cents lower at midday with meal turning back 
higher during the day session while oil consolidates. Meal is 2.00 to 3.00 
higher and oil is narrowly mixed. On the report, trade is looking for yield to 
be unchanged at 53.0 bpa with old-crop carryout at 337 million bushels (mb) and 
new at 324 mb versus 340 mb and 310 mb last month, respectively. Basis should 
find support from the product rebound boosting crush margins in the short term. 
Weather should support short-term crop development for most with temps 
remaining somewhat elevated and better rain coverage to the west. The daily 
export wire saw 136,000 metric tons (mt) sold to China and 120,000 metric tons 
sold to unknown destinations. Weekly export sales were soft at 54,300 mt old 
crop; 408,300 mt new crop; meal 225,500 of old crop and 96,000 of new crop; 900 
of oil. On the September contract, chart support is the 20-day moving average 
at $11.40 with the Upper Bollinger Band at $11.90 as resistance.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 8 to 11 cents higher at midday with broad buying 
developing during the day session with harvest pressure continuing to ease and 
the dollar remaining strong. On the report, wheat yield is expected to stay 
flat at 47.0 bpa with harvested acres dropping and old-crop carryout at 927 mb, 
710 mb of new versus 935 mb and 744 mb last month, respectively. Harvest should 
continue to roll forth as it gets past the 66% point for winter wheat with 
warmer temps likely to push spring wheat along into midmonth. Matif wheat is 
flat as the euro weakens. Weekly export sales were mediocre at 313,300 mt. On 
the KC September chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $6.38, which we 
are working to consolidate above, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $6.62 the 
next level higher.

   **

   Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Friday, July 10, 
as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions 
are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their 
convenience. Register here for Friday's USDA WASDE webinar: 
https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dtn.com%2F
wasde-webinars%2F&data=05%7C02%7CCheri.Zagurski%40dtn.com%7C071e09a297a1476cf4ff
08dedd08ffef%7Cd945da26f07f451496e79b8f78a743d0%7C0%7C0%7C639191227917541583%7CU
nknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiI
sIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=oo%2FI12akBULqNHy79w0FSccJM
5FQSLk6PJzOsyP3oUg%3D&reserved=0.

    

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala




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